Market Statistics

Every month, CoreLogic releases its Home Price Insights Report. In that report, they forecast where they believe residential real estate prices will be in twelve months.

Below is a map, broken down by state, reflecting how home values are forecasted to change by the end of 2018 using data from the most recent report.

As we can see, CoreLogic projects...

What truly causes a housing bubble and the inevitable crash? For the best explanation, let’s go to a person who correctly called the last housing bubble – a year before it happened.

“A bubble requires both overvaluation based on fundamentals and speculation. It is natural to focus on an asset’s fundamental value, but the real key for detecting a bubble is speculation…Speculation tends to chase appreciating assets, and then speculation begets more speculation, until finally, for some reason that will become obvious to all in hindsight, the ‘bubble’ bursts.

I have taken to calling the housing market a ‘bubble’.”

– Bill McBride of Calculated Risk calling the bubble back in April 2005

Where...

Click here to download the November 2017 Local Market Snapshot reports, presented by zip code and MLS area.

Highlights

• the median detached home price rose 9.1 percent to $199,650
• the average detached price increased 8.4 percent to $237,089
• overall inventory of detached homes for sale decreased 18.9 percent to 3,081
• the number of closed sales for detached homes increased 0.6 percent to 826
• the number of detached homes going under contract rose 24.4 percent to 917

Some Highlights:

• The National Association of REALTORS® surveyed their members for their Confidence Index.
• The REALTORS® Confidence Index is a key indicator of housing market strength based on a monthly survey sent to over 50,000 real estate practitioners. Practitioners are asked about their expectations for home sales, prices and market conditions.
• Homes sold in less than 60 days in 44 out of 50 states, and Washington D.C.
• Homes typically went under contract in 34 days in October!

Some Highlights:

• The inventory of existing homes for sale has dropped year-over-year for the last 29 consecutive months and is now at a 3.9-month supply.
• Existing home sales are currently at an annual pace of 5.48 million, the highest pace since June of this year, but down 0.9% from October 2016.
• NAR’s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, had this to say: “While the housing market gained a little more momentum last month, sales are still below year ago levels because low inventory is limiting choices for prospective buyers and keeping price growth elevated.”

There is little doubt that it is easier to get a home mortgage today than it was last year. The Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), published by the Mortgage Bankers Association, shows that mortgage credit has become more available in each of the last several years. In fact, in just the last year:

• More buyers are putting less than 20% down to purchase a home
• The average credit score on closed mortgages is lower
• More low-down-payment programs have been introduced

This has some people worrying that we are returning to the lax lending standards which led to the boom and bust that real estate experienced ten years ago. Let’s alleviate some of that concern.

The graph below shows the MCAI going back to the...